BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment has started the week on a positive note, with lower oil prices supporting global bond and equity markets. Currency movements have been modest, with the NZD little changed around 0.5720.
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US equities were little changed into the end of last week, despite a weak session for major European indices and a move higher in global bond yields. The US 10-year Treasury yield rebounded towards 5.0%, while French yields reached their highest level since 2008. The yen experienced large swings after the Bank of Japan meeting, although broader currency market moves were contained. Brent crude held steady near US$104 per barrel as energy markets assessed the potential for renewed diplomacy and the expected partial restoration of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline.
BNZ Markets Today
The dip in risk-sensitive assets after Fed Chair Warsh’s post-FOMC press conference unwound through Asian trading yesterday and extended overnight. The S&P 500 gained about 1%, while the Nasdaq outperformed and chipmakers rose around 3%. Treasury yields fell from recent highs, with the 10-year yield back below 5%, while the US dollar was broadly stable. Brent crude briefly fell toward $102 on signs Saudi Arabia was restoring capacity on its East-West pipeline, before rebounding after President Trump said he was approaching a major crossroads on the Iran conflict.
BNZ Markets Today
Ahead of this morning’s Fed announcement, sentiment across global rates markets was much improved compared with recent days, with rates lower across the board and some support coming from lower oil prices. Equity markets posted modest gains, while currency markets showed only small net movements. The Fed delivered a 25bps hike, as widely expected. The initial market reaction has been a flatter curve, with higher short rates, a stronger USD and US equities now show a modest fall.
BNZ Markets Today
In the absence of any major news, risk sentiment has remained weak as global rates grind higher, imparting a negative bias to global equity markets. NZD/USD continues to languish near two-month lows, while the NZ TWI has hit its lowest level since the March 2020 COVID nadir.
BNZ Markets Today
Volatility in oil prices has made trading conditions choppy at the start of the week. The US 10-year rate briefly surged through the 5% mark before retracing its move. The NZD continues to underperform, breaking below 0.5760 overnight before recovering somewhat.
BNZ Markets Today
The sell-off across global bond markets paused at the end of last week, despite the key details of the widely anticipated US CPI report coming in stronger than expected. Sentiment was helped by a retreat in oil prices towards US$105, after Brent crude had traded near US$110 during the Asian session. Risk-sensitive markets performed strongly - the S&P 500 snapped a four-session losing streak, advancing nearly 1%, led by communication services and technology. Major European indices also posted solid gains, with the Euro Stoxx closing almost 1% higher.
BNZ Markets Today
Global government bond yields rose to fresh multi-year highs as oil prices extended gains, reflecting concern over the Iran conflict and a hawkish ECB hike. Brent crude traded above $107 a barrel, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.90%, its highest level since October 2023. The move weighed on risk sentiment, with major equity indices lower in Europe and North America and the S&P down about 0.5% in afternoon trading. The US dollar was broadly firmer against G10 currencies, with the NZD and AUD underperforming.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment is weaker after oil rose above USD100 per barrel, pushing global rates higher. US Treasury yields received an additional boost after disappointment over the size of the expanded buyback programme. In currency markets, the NZD continues to struggle following the RBNZ’s dovish tone last week.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow overnight has been light, and market movements have remained well contained. Market sentiment is a little softer, with US equities modestly weaker after the US holiday. Global rates are little changed. The NZD has sustained the weakness seen during New Zealand trading hours, while the JPY has been on a rollercoaster ride, weakening after its recent strong rally.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a quiet start to the week, with US markets closed for a holiday. Oil prices are modestly higher, with attention focused on further tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran. Global rates are higher, while US Treasury futures are lower, consistent with a small lift in the US 10-year rate from Friday’s close. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures are up 0.1%. The yen has continued to strengthen, while the NZD has drifted lower and is slightly weaker on most key crosses, with a larger fall against the yen.
BNZ Markets Today
A better-than-expected US jobs report contributed to higher front end Treasury yields while equities made modest losses as markets priced a higher chance the Federal Reserve will raise rates this month. The S&P closed around 0.4% lower while major equity indices in Europe were little changed. An initial move higher for the US dollar quickly faded and net moves across currencies were not large.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets gained while US treasury yields declined after Fed Governor Waller struck a balanced tone on the monetary policy outlook ahead of next week’s August inflation data. The S&P 500 rose more than 1% in a broad-based rally, with almost all sectors higher on the day. The US dollar weakened against G10 currencies, with the yen the largest mover, extending recent gains after the hawkish comments from a Bank of Japan board member. Brent crude was steady near US$95 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment has improved slightly following the hit earlier in the week. Oil prices have stabilised somewhat, and US Treasury yields are down a touch after reaching fresh highs. The move has supported a modest gain in US equities. There has been plenty of action in currency markets, with a temporary surge in the yen, CAD supported by the Bank of Canada’s hawkish hold, and the NZD broadly weaker after the RBNZ’s dovish hike.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment is weaker, dampened by military strikes in the Middle East that sent oil prices higher. Global rates are higher, with fresh highs recorded in many countries, while most global equity markets are weaker. Although currency moves have been modest, the USD is broadly stronger, pushing the NZD back below 0.59. The RBNZ meets today, where a 25bps hike should be seen as a done deal.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been an uneventful end to August, following a fairly uneventful month overall. Bond and equity markets were modestly weaker as the US and Iran exchanged missile fire in the Middle East after a month of reduced military activity.
BNZ Markets Today
Short-end Treasury yields moved sharply higher after Federal Reserve Chair Warsh used the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium to push back against the view that policy is already sufficiently restrictive. The move contributed to a broad-based rally in the US dollar. Equities saw choppy price action, with the S&P 500 initially rising after Warsh’s speech before retracing to end the session around 0.4% lower. Gold fell sharply, down around 4%, following steady gains through August, while Brent crude was little changed near US$89 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
A strong revenue forecast from Nvidia has helped drive a rally in technology stocks. The company reported earnings well ahead of estimates yesterday and said it expected 70% revenue growth in its 2028 fiscal year. The Nasdaq is up more than 1.0%, while the S&P 500 advanced, with technology the only sector in positive territory. Major European indices were little changed. The US dollar is marginally softer against G10 currencies, while global sovereign bond markets were broadly stable. Brent crude edged higher towards US$89 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
US Treasury yields and the USD rose after a series of US data releases that were broadly in line with consensus but kept pressure on the Fed to raise rates later in the year. The NZD has sustained the weakness that followed yesterday’s stronger-than-expected Australian CPI data, which encouraged selling on the crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets are in a slightly better mood, with bonds and equity markets supported by lower oil prices. Improved risk sentiment has helped nudge the NZD higher against a modest, broadly based fall in the USD.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest at the start of the new week. There has been no follow-through from last week’s global bond market selloff, while the dollar debasement trade has paused, with the USD recovering a little of last week’s losses. The CAD weakened after the US-Canada trade war escalated.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended last week on a positive note, with the S&P 500 supported by upbeat business surveys pointing to resilient economic activity. Treasury market volatility moderated, though yields still moved higher across the curve, while the US dollar remained near recent lows. Precious metals extended their recent gains, as Treasury buyback plans renewed concerns about fiscal debasement and sustained demand for alternatives to the greenback.
BNZ Markets Today
US long-end Treasury yields rebounded after investors judged the Treasury’s plan to curb borrowing costs as a short-term fix that did little to address underlying structural issues. The move weighed on equities, though net moves were modest. The S&P 500 is slightly lower in afternoon trading, while the Nasdaq is down close to 1%. Oil prices continued to rise after President Trump vowed to apply maximum economic pressure on Iran. An initial dip in the US dollar index was retraced, leaving it little changed.
BNZ Markets Today
News that the US Treasury plans to increase buybacks of longer-dated bonds contributed to a sharp fall in 30-year yields. The move followed the 30-year yield reaching its highest level in 19 years earlier this week, amid investor concerns over fiscal deficits, heavy AI-related borrowing and inflation. The announcement supported risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 rising to session highs, although the net gain was modest. The US dollar fell to its lowest level since May, while Brent crude edged above US$92.50 per barrel, with no sign of progress toward resolving the US-Iran conflict.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light, but with global bond yields hovering around multi-decade highs, global equity markets are weaker. Brent crude is steady near USD91 per barrel. Currency moves have been negligible overnight, with the NZD sustaining yesterday’s pullback to 0.5875.
BNZ Markets Today
Global long-term rates have risen to fresh multi-decade highs against a backdrop of higher oil prices. The USD weakness evident yesterday reversed overnight, with the NZD pulling back to 0.59 after reaching a 2½-month high.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets were little changed at the end of last week. The S&P 500 closed marginally lower but remains close to record highs. Softer-than-expected US consumer data contributed to an initial rally in Treasury yields, although the move quickly reversed. European government bond yields also moved higher, led by the long end, which reached multi-decade highs. The US dollar was broadly weaker against G10 currencies. Brent crude fluctuated near $88 a barrel after US Treasury Secretary Bessent threatened “unprecedented” economic measures against Iran, including the continued naval blockade of Iranian ports.
BNZ Markets Today
Benign US PPI data supported lower US rates and helped US equities reach a fresh record high. Currency markets remain moribund. The NZD reversed the decline that followed yesterday’s RBNZ survey of expectations.
BNZ Markets Today
The northern hemisphere summer doldrums continue to produce only modest market movements, and an in-line US CPI report did little to bring life to markets. The main impact was to pare back a little of the tightening priced into the Fed Funds curve, supporting bonds and equities at the margin.
BNZ Markets Today
The Northern Hemisphere summer doldrums remain firmly in place, with little news and market movements well contained.
Headlines on the Middle East situation have been mixed. Mediator Pakistan said the US and Iran were “close to some sort of arrangement” over the Strait of Hormuz, with signals over the past two to three days pointing toward peace. Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until conditions are met. Meanwhile, the WSJ reported that US forces fired on a Panama-flagged ship that attempted to run the American blockade of Iranian ports, the first US strikes in several days. Oil prices have been choppy and Brent crude, after briefly trading above USD90 per barrel, is currently trading with a USD88 handle, up over 1% on the day.
BNZ Markets Today
The main news is that there is no news. The market has been anticipating a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but, about a week after the “within the next day or two” timeframe, there is still no agreement and there may never be one. The demands Iran outlined over the weekend as conditions for allowing the safe passage of shipping through the strait — including the withdrawal of US military forces, the end of all sanctions, and payment of war reparations — are a non-starter for any US agreement.
BNZ Markets Today
An unexpected slowdown in the US labour market saw investors trim Fed rate hike expectations and supported risk sentiment. US equities made further gains, with the S&P closing 0.6% higher and extending last week’s advance to more than 3%. Investors also welcomed reports that the US will lift its blockade of Iranian ports once a deal to restore shipping is announced. That news saw oil prices ease from session highs, with Brent crude closing near US$82 per barrel. Global bond yields fell, the US dollar weakened broadly, and gold prices extended recent gains.
BNZ Markets Today
Oil prices rose steadily overnight on Middle East headlines, pushing US Treasury yields higher, while currency moves were mostly contained apart from further yen weakness. Equity markets show small movements.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets took a breather after solid gains in recent sessions. The S&P was little changed, albeit after an initial advance pushed the index to a fresh intraday high. Global rates markets were broadly stable, with Treasuries looking past data showing steady expansion in the services sector. The US dollar eased, though moves were contained. Gold prices rose more than 4% to US$4,250 per troy ounce, marking a notable breakout after being confined to a narrow range through July.
BNZ Markets Today
Improved prospects for de-escalation in the Middle East have driven oil prices lower, supported global rates markets, and added fresh momentum to already buoyant equity markets. The NZD shows a modest gain to 0.5890.
BNZ Markets Today
The new week began with oil prices plunging on hopes of some form of resolution in the Middle East, while yen volatility continued in the wake of official joint US-Japan intervention late last week. Lower oil prices have eased pressure on the bond market and contributed to positive equity market gains. The USD is broadly stronger overnight.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended July on a positive but volatile note, with the S&P closing 0.7% higher after large intraday swings. Global bond yields rose, led by further weakness at the long end of the US Treasury curve extending the move from after the FOMC. The yen remained in focus amid increased coordination between Japanese and US authorities to provide support, while the NZD reached its highest level in several weeks. Brent crude rebounded above US$90 per barrel. Over the weekend President Trump said he held off delivering new strikes against Iran while discussions are underway about reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been an eventful 24 hours, with more bombing in the Middle East, further fallout from yesterday’s Fed policy update, a dovish policy update from the Bank of England, suspected FX intervention by the BoJ, some top-tier global economic releases, and a rotation back into semiconductor stocks. The net result has been strong equity market gains ahead of month-end, further US yield curve steepening, lower UK rates, and a broadly weaker USD.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk-sensitive assets came under pressure ahead of this morning’s US Federal Reserve rate decision. Renewed Middle East tensions lifted oil prices and bond yields across Europe and the US, with 10-year Treasuries moving back towards 4.65%. The geopolitical developments weighed on investor sentiment, with the S&P down more than 0.5% before the Fed announcement amid further weakness in chipmakers. Recent anxiety around the AI trade will face another test today, with Meta and Microsoft due to report earnings. Currency markets were broadly stable.
BNZ Markets Today
Oil prices have fallen sharply for a third consecutive day, about 5%, taking Brent crude to USD84 and the week-to-date fall to around 14%. The decline reflects hopes that the cessation of military action between the US and Iran can hold and ultimately allow shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal. This week’s fall in oil prices unwinds about half of the rise seen through July.
BNZ Markets Today
Oil prices have fallen sharply to begin the week after the Trump administration paused plans to escalate strikes against Iran. The pause eased concerns over potential disruption to Middle East energy supplies and initially supported risk appetite. US equity-index futures gained in Asian trading, although the advance faded overnight, leaving the S&P 500 close to flat in afternoon US trade as chip stocks weighed on the index. Bond yields declined, while an initial fall in the US dollar was later pared.
BNZ Markets Today
On Friday, President Trump announced a fresh round of tariffs, with the expiring 10% country-specific tariff rates replaced by 10% or 12.5% rates under a different act, as he tiptoes around various laws. NZ’s tariff rate rises to 12.5% and will continue to exclude beef and kiwifruit. Cue another round of legal challenges, but for now all and sundry will have to swallow the new tariffs. Late in NY trading, Trump threatened to hit the EU with more tariffs following the “robbing” of American tech companies after the EU imposed fines for breaching the bloc’s digital rules.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk sentiment is weaker amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, which are driving inflation fears, pushing bond yields higher, weighing on equity markets, and supporting the USD. Concerns about the scale of capex in the AI sector have added to the drag on US equities.
BNZ Markets Today
The latest US bombing campaign against Iran entered an eleventh day, with strikes extending to a new area in the north-west of the country. Iran continues to retaliate with attacks against US allies in the Gulf region. Brent crude has risen on seven of the past eight days, reaching a high of almost USD95.50 last night, and is currently trading near USD94. After Iran’s interior minister visited Pakistan, a spokesman said, “There are no negotiations — it’s only possible for there to be an exchange of messages.”
BNZ Markets Today
Oil prices rose overnight, taking Brent crude above USD91 per barrel, up 2% on the day as the US-Iran conflict continues. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to shipping, with vessels attempting to traverse it being attacked by Iranian drones and missiles. Threats by the Houthis to blockade the strait through the Red Sea have already prompted some tankers to turn around. President Trump downplayed the prospect of any imminent return to peace talks with Iran, saying, “they want to desperately meet and until they’re ready to meet in a meaningful way we have no interest”. Iran dismissed claims that it is seeking further talks.
BNZ Markets Today
Following the escalation in tensions between the US and Iran over the weekend, oil prices opened the new week significantly higher, with Brent crude rising to a six-week high above USD91 per barrel. Overnight, both positive and negative headlines contributed to oil price volatility. On the positive side, a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry said that ideas from some mediators had been conveyed, while the country’s interior minister would travel to Pakistan on Monday. Furthermore, media reports suggested that one proposal from Qatar was for a 10-day ceasefire to explore ways to revive the Memorandum of Understanding.
BNZ Markets Today
Rates and currency markets showed well contained price movements to end last week, with more notable price action in oil markets and US equities.
US and Iran tit-for-tat military attacks increased in scale and scope through the week and that continued over the weekend. This included US targeting southern Iranian cities as part of its attacks on logistics infrastructure, while Iran was spreading it attacks across multiple gulf nations, with strikes of water desalination and electricity plants in Kuwait, for example. Over the weekend, tensions have increased further, with US military deaths and injuries after Iran targeted a US base in Jordan. The NY Times reported the US was sending more warplanes to the Middle East, a signal of future US escalation in aerial attacks.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest, with a lack of catalysts to drive significant moves. US equities are showing modest falls, US Treasury yields are a little higher, and the USD is moderately stronger.
BNZ Markets Today
The US attacked Iran for a fifth straight day, targeting military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, after Trump said the bombing campaign would continue. With no significant fresh developments, oil prices have settled, with traders not drawn in by the FT’s lead article warning of a fresh crude supply crunch. Brent crude is flat at around USD85 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
• Surprise, surprise, Trump backs down on his plan for a 20% levy on cargo traversing the Strait of Hormuz; oil prices pare earlier gains
• US CPI for June much softer than expected; core inflation flat
• Fed Chair Warsh maintains hawkish tone in testimony in front of lawmakers with "resolute commitment to restoring price stability"
• Soft CPI drives down US rates and USD, before some fading after Warsh speaks
• NZD well supported after run of data and more hawkish RBNZ stance; NZD/USD above 0.58 and NZD gains on crosses
• NZ short-end swap rates reach a fresh high for the year
During NZ trading hours, the US and Iran exchanged missile fire, with the US targeting military assets near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran targeting the US base in Bahrain. Overnight, President Trump unsurprisingly backed down from his plan to charge a 20% levy on cargo traversing the Strait of Hormuz, a policy that lasted less than 24 hours. This followed pushback from Gulf nation allies, with Trump instead claiming these nations would make trade and investment deals with the US.
BNZ Markets Today
The escalation of tensions between the US and Iran late last week, over the weekend, and during the NZ trading session set the tone for markets at the start of the new week. From the US perspective, the objective of the latest military action was to degrade Iran’s ability to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. From Iran’s perspective, the aim was to show it still had leverage in negotiations and wanted to maintain control of the Strait.
BNZ Markets Today
Market reaction to the escalation in Middle East tensions remained well contained at the end of last week. While NZ was on holiday, the US struck military targets and some infrastructure in Iran, while Iran fired drones and missiles towards several countries across various gulf nations. Military action continued through the weekend. Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed while the US position is that it remains opens. Traffic through the Strait has been brought to a standstill. That’s the state of play this morning, which investors will need to consider as trading for the new week begins.
BNZ Markets Today
A renewed flare-up in US-Iran tensions weighed on equity markets and pushed global bond yields higher, as oil prices jumped after President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was over and the US launched a fresh round of strikes. The S&P was initially down more than 1%, though it has since pared most of those losses. European markets were weaker, with the Euro Stoxx falling close to 2%. Global yields moved higher, led by the UK and Europe, as markets priced greater inflation risk and the potential for tighter policy. Currency-market moves were limited.
BNZ Markets Today
There was a softer tone across global equity markets, led by weakness in the technology sector. The move began in Asia yesterday after Samsung reported record earnings but failed to meet elevated investor expectations. Its shares fell in South Korea, dragging the Kospi down nearly 5% and weighing on chip stocks globally. The Nasdaq fell more than 1.5% in US trading before subsequently recovering. With limited economic data to guide markets, global bond yields moved higher while currency markets were subdued. Oil prices rose following attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities gained as investors returned from the long weekend. The Nasdaq is up about 1%, with oversold semiconductor and memory stocks rebounding after last week’s sharp falls, suggesting investors may be less concerned about the AI-related worries that have weighed on the sector in recent weeks. The S&P is up around 0.5%, while major European indices closed modestly lower. On the economic front, the US services sector expanded in June at a slightly slower pace, although firms lifted employment as cost pressures eased. Rates and FX markets are little changed.
BNZ Markets Today
It was a quiet end to the trading week for global asset markets with US cash equity and bond markets closed for a public holiday. S&P futures were up about 0.5% compared with the previous close. Major indices in Europe advanced with the euro Stoxx closing at a record high. Currency and rates markets were subdued in the absence of economic data or other catalysts. Brent crude prices were steady near US$72 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
A weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls print set the tone for markets, pushing front-end Treasury yields lower as markets pared expectations for Fed tightening. The dollar also weakened, with the yen outperforming after Japanese authorities signalled a possible shift in intervention strategy. US equities initially traded higher before reversing. The S&P 500 is 0.5% lower, while a key gauge of semiconductor stocks declined nearly 6% as investors became increasingly anxious about the tech outlook. Oil was little changed near US$71 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
Global markets are little changed as investors looked for guidance from major central bankers gathered at the ECB’s annual Sintra forum. US equities have rebounded from earlier losses and are close to flat in afternoon trading. US economic data pointed to ongoing resilience in manufacturing and the labour market. Global bonds are generally steady and net moves in G10 currencies have been small. Brent crude slipped towards US$71 per barrel as the US said indirect talks with Iran were positive, while gold continues to hold near the psychological US$4,000 level after trending lower in recent months.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equities extended recent gains, with the S&P 500 up almost 1% in afternoon trading and on track for its strongest quarterly performance since 2020, having gained nearly 14%. The Nasdaq has risen close to 20% over the quarter. Oil was little changed near US$73 per barrel ahead of US-Iran talks in Qatar aimed at formally ending the conflict. Treasury yields rose, while the US dollar was mixed, with Australasian currencies outperforming within the G10 while the yen remained under pressure.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity-index futures rose in Asian trading after reports the US and Iran had backed away from a fresh escalation, easing concerns over the fragile ceasefire underpinning peace talks. The gains extended overnight, with the S&P close to 1% higher in afternoon trading despite some volatility after the cash open. Brent crude rose above $73 a barrel, having traded near $71 late last week, as markets responded cautiously to the resumption of talks. Elsewhere, the US dollar weakened against most G10 currencies, while rates markets were little changed.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk-sensitive assets came under pressure in Asia on Friday, with AI-linked regional equity indices lower and the Kospi suffering sharp losses, triggering a circuit breaker for the second time last week. US indices finished broadly flat, although tech stocks remained under pressure as chipmakers weakened. In a sign of rotation beneath the surface, the equal-weighted S&P 500 closed near a record high. Lower oil prices also helped sentiment. US Treasuries were little changed, while the US dollar recovered from an earlier decline.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest. Reports that the Iranian Navy is trying to assert its authority in the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to a 2% lift in oil prices. That move pushed up the US 10-year Treasury yield, following its earlier fall after the core PCE deflator came in lower than some feared. The USD broke its positive daily run and is broadly weaker, although moves have been modest. The NZD is slightly higher at 0.5650.